England already know victory against Sri Lanka would take them into the semi-finals as long as they stay above Australia on net run-rate
In the 1982 football World Cup, West Germany played Austria in their final group game. West Germany needed to win to progress. But if they won by three goals or more, the Austria’s would be eliminated.
West Germany scored after ten minutes. Then, almost nothing happened at all. Both teams passed the ball gently among themselves, knowing that a 1-0 West Germany victory would send both teams through to the next stage.
Whether or not the teams had agreed the outcome before the game is moot; a narrow West German win suited both. This was the Disgrace of Gijon: a spectacle so grim that it changed the sport. Belatedly recognising how not playing the final round of group matches concurrently created scope for collusion – tacit or otherwise – from the next World Cup the final pair of group matches have always started at the same time.
Forty years on, such thinking remains absent from cricket. This is to England’s advantage: they play the last match in Group 1, a day after Australia, their rivals for a semi-final berth, play their last game.