‘When Russia retreats NATO missiles will take out tanks’

The Ukrainians have made significant advances here over the past few months and their enemy is being squeezed inexorably into a pocket around the city. There are conflicting rumours about whether the Russians intend to flee or fight. Remaining in the city on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro river risks them getting cut off and eliminated.From a purely military point of view it makes eminent sense for them to abandon their present positions and establish their defensive lines along the left (eastern) bank of the river. The Dnipro is a huge waterway, five kilometres wide in some places, and a massive obstacle to further Ukrainian advances towards Crimea.An opposed river crossing is amongst the most difficult operations of war to carry out successfully, and calls for in-depth training in combined arms cooperation, dry rehearsals away from the enemy’s watchful eyes, and huge logistic resources. It’s not the sort of task that any army would take on willingly if there were easier alternatives.So there’s much to be gained tactically from the Russians abandoning Kherson city. There is some evidence already that Russian flags have been removed from public buildings and that Russian roadblocks have been dismantled, and there has been some movement of troops by ferry/pontoon back across the river to more easily defendable positions. Ukrainians have made significant advances over the past few months (Image: GETTY)Whether the Russians will be able to withdraw their heavy equipment is a moot point. The bridges and ferries have either been rendered unusable or are in constant danger of interdiction by long range precision artillery and missiles.Here is where the US and NATO-supplied HIMARS rockets systems and GPS-guided Excalibur 155 mm guided artillery shells have played a major part in shaping the battlefield.If the Russians do manage to withdraw then without their tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery systems and so on, they will be to all intents and purposes a spent force.Re-equipping them to their former state will take many months, as will training and equipping the stop-gap new formations being rushed to their aid.Some have suggested that this possible withdrawal is all part of an elaborate deception plan to lure Ukrainian forces into the city and destroy them there. It has been noted that some of the Russian army’s best troops, including airborne forces and naval marine battalions, have dug themselves in there.There have even been hare-brained opinions expressed that the Ukrainian forces might be taken out by tactical nuclear weapons once they have been ‘allowed’ to reoccupy their city.Personally, I think this is highly unlikely as the Russians haven’t shown such guile elsewhere so far in the current conflict, nor are they unaware of the likely consequences of escalating the war by resorting to weapons of mass destruction. The USA and NATO would not stand idly by were they to do so, and they know direct confrontation with the west has to be avoided at all costs.If and when the Ukrainians recapture Kherson city it will be a huge boost for their armed forces and for the country’s morale. Conversely, both militarily and politically, the loss of it will be a big defeat and blow to Putin and to Russia’s prestige. So it may be that he will choose to fight to the bitter end, or at least he will order his soldiers to do so.The down side for Ukraine is that, if they do have to fight to retake the city, then widespread destruction is likely to ensue. We have seen from the ruin of other places like Mariupol why they will want to avoid this if at all possible.So they will be hoping the Russians withdraw whilst at the same time looking in some trepidation and having, at some point, to cross the Dnipro to continue their advance towards Crimea.We don’t know how this is going to pan out quite yet, but I think we’ll have a better idea of what the future might hold within a fortnight or so.Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a former Army officer, author and broadcaster – sign up to his podcast at defencereview.uk