With Russia’s influence in tatters across Europe and Central Asia, Erdogan has his sights set on moving in to fill the vacuum
In 1568, Russian Tsar Ivan the Terrible led his armies into battle against the Ottoman Empire for the first time. Over the 500 years that followed, the two great powers would fight no fewer than a dozen bloody wars, leaving countless dead and giving the Russians control over vast swathes of land from Crimea to the Caucasus. Now, half a millennium later, with Moscow distracted by its increasingly catastrophic invasion of Ukraine, its old rival Turkey is taking advantage of the Kremlin’s self-made crisis to roll back the clock.
At a jubilant rally last week, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced that “the Century of Turkey” is dawning, pledging to lead his country to greatness once again after decades of relative decline. Having made little secret of his admiration for the Ottoman’s strength, regional dominance and traditional Islamic values, he seems intent on following in their footsteps.
However, Erdoğan faces a critical re-election battle early next year amid a worsening economic crisis that has seen inflation skyrocket to 85.5% and the price of food and basic goods rise far faster than wages. Looking abroad for answers to problems back home, Turkey is asserting itself across Eastern Europe and Central Asia as part of efforts to secure energy supplies, cheap imports and strengthen its hand. That means parking its tanks squarely in Russia’s sphere of influence.
In northern Syria, Turkish troops are preparing for a new offensive against Kurdish fighters as part of a bid to secure territory on which to rehouse tens of thousands of refugees who came to their country fleeing civil war. The plan has put Ankara at odds with Moscow, which supports the brutal government of Bashar Al-Assad and is loathe to see another outside power treading on its turf. However, already over-extended with its ‘special operation,’ there seems to be little the Kremlin can do but issue warnings.