 – probably the most well-respected defence think tank in the UK – that will amount to a real term cut over that period. Defence budget tussle set to hot up So how does that square with the manifesto pledge? Well, the wording of that was 'increase the budget by at least 0.5 per cent above inflation every year of the new Parliament'. Downing Street will likely insist that remains true because when you look at the defence budget increases over the past five years and average it out per year, it will meet that requirement. But is that the spirit of the manifesto? If, as Rusi said, defence spending is decreasing in real terms in the coming years, will voters accept this technical defence? And then there are parliamentarians. Ms Truss promised to hit three per cent of GDP in defence spending in 2030. If Mr Sunak keeps that as a loose ambition, details on how to hit it are not expected to be revealed, raising questions about whether it really will be reached. Mr Hunt called for similarly major defence spending increases, making it tricky political ground for him. James Heappey, the Armed Forces minister, indicated in a pub){kind=link}
Autumn Statement, Ukraine and the cost of living crisis could all determine if the 2019 pledge to boost defence spending will be met
When Boris Johnson was seeking to smash down the Red Wall, he put being tough on military matters – and a promise that defence spending would rise – front and centre of his pitch.
At the time, Labour’s traditional heartlands – constituencies in north-east England and the Midlands – were going cold on the party under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn.
He was ruthlessly framed as a man who was weak on defence by the Tories, who dredged up and weaponised old comments about scrapping the Trident nuclear deterrent.
So in its manifesto that year, the Conservatives did not just promise to stick by the Nato target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence, one that David Cameron had wavered on for a period.