‘To save Britain the Tories need to LOSE by a huge margin’

Polls show that Labour has gained over the Tories (Image: Getty)Where a week or two ago Labour was getting well over 50 percent of the vote it is now a little under 50 percent. And while the Tories were looking at the mid-20s in percentage terms they are now climbing nearer to 30 percent.But while the appointment of the new PM has brought some perception of stability, there could be a sting in all of this, and Tory attempts to minimise the party’s losses may be the most reckless thing the party could do.Unless the Conservatives can completely reverse Labour’s poll lead, then it becomes more likely – whatever Labour may say – that the latter will need the Lib Dems (still hovering around 10 percent in the polls) to form a coalition.Although Sir Keir Starmer has ruled out even an informal post-election deal with the Lib Dems, following a similar pledge about the SNP, it seems hard to believe Labour really would lose the chance to form a government simply because it was not willing to work with the Lib Dems.This makes the chances of a proportional representation (PR) referendum more likely. Firstly, this is because the Lib Dems would almost certainly make this a condition of any deal, and secondly, because the smaller the margin it wins by, the more Labour may see merit in PR as a means of securing its future.If Labour did spectacularly well at the next election – despite many of its members backing PR – the party may be overall confident of a bright future under the current system of first-past-the-post. But the reverse is also true.The danger for the Tories is that they would be stuffed by PR, pretty much unable to ever form a majority government again. This is because the current system of first-past-the-post means the Tories invariably can win a majority of seats with a minority of the vote, given how votes are distributed.In 2019, for instance, the Tories gained less than 44 percent of the vote yet still got a landslide with over 56 percent of the seats in the Commons. In a PR system, they would have gained closer to 43-44 percent of MPs.To hold power going forward then, the Tories would be forced to form coalitions with new or existing centre-right parties, like Reform UK.Labour may however look at the electoral arithmetic which currently shows that a majority of the public backs centre-left parties, and think it has a better future under PR, leading centre-left coalitions going forward.Indeed, given how many Labour members back PR, even in the event of a majority government – especially one with a slim margin – Labour might think it has a more secure future under proportional representation.The danger for the Tories is that the public now backs PR, meaning they would be more likely to support a change to the voting system if it was put to a vote.So, will the Tories be able to win over enough people in time for the next election? Well, the economic situation looks unlikely to change dramatically anytime soon, while the Tories’ solutions hardly look appealing to many.Meanwhile, for all the talk about newfound stability, in reality too much blue-on-blue blood has been spilled in the Tory ranks over the last decade for the party’s divisions to have been completely healed.Finally, after twelve-and-a-half years, the Tories have failed to get a grip on the things its voters wanted them to: law and order, borders, and the economy. What is the betting the channel crossing situation gets resolved?In many ways, all Labour has to do is not screw up, make moderate noises on the economy, make it clear the party commits to Brexit, and tone down some of its more fiery language.For the Conservatives, the risk of a slim Labour victory may be even more dangerous than a huge Labour win. If the latter takes place, at least Labour may put any talk of voting reform on the back burner.If the former takes place – especially if Labour needs to cut a deal with the Lib Dems – then the chance of a new voting system being brought in goes way up and the Tories’ chance of forming a majority government again goes way down.It may seem tempting for the Tories to try and reverse their sharp fall in the polls, but assuming a total reversal is completely out of reach, then a policy of damage control could in fact be the most damaging thing the Tories could do.