Pollster dismisses claims that abortion fury stopped Trump candidates

A US pollster has raised questions over claims that divisions over abortion in the US helped stop Donald Trump’s MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republican candidates win key swing seats in the US midterm elections. The issue became a major focus for Joe Biden and the Democrats in the wake of a Supreme Court ruling earlier this year which overturned the famous Roe v Wade which guaranteed women’s rights to have an abortion.But Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute which correctly predicted the popular vote in the midterm elections, told Express.co.uk that if anything the abortion issue would have helped the pro-life Republicans slightly more than the pro-choice Democrats.The debate comes as pollsters and the political parties try to understand why the Republicans failed to make the major gains in seats expected despite an 8 percent swing in their favour fromm the 2020 election.The increase in popular vote has so far failed to break the deadlock in the Senate where three seats are still undecided with the Republicans needing two of them to hold a slim majority.Meanwhile, they are also struggling to pick up many extra House seats but seem to be on course to a slim majority of 218 needed or over.In a campaign where President Biden’s approval rate was below 40 percent and there was anger over the economy, the Democrats focussed on the women’s right to choose around abortion as a means of trying to turn their fortunes. Pro-choice supporters mostly voted Democrat against Trump’s MAGA candidates (Image: GETTY)But Mr Basham questioned whether the tactic was as effective as people have claimed.Pre-election polling by the Democracy Institute showed that 27 percent were more likely to vote Republican as a result of the Roe v Wade case while 24 percent more likely to vote Democrat.Mr Basham said that “one of the narratives” coming from the election was that abortion had swung it for the Democrats with MAGA Republican candidate sparticularly anti-abortion.He (in th above video) said: “There just isn’t evidence that in terms of the Congressional and Senatorial race that abortion influenced the outcome.”The country is nationallly pro-choice, most people want access to abortion at some level.”However, there are verry few people who take it as a single issue abortion voters. They make a lot of noise and raise a lot of money but are in single digits.”The pro-choice voters are anlmst exclusively Democrats but they are what we call in the polling industry proprensity voters – they always vote and the live in areas like California, Illinois, New York and New Jersey, places which are going to vote Democrat.”On the other side pro-life single issue voters, they don’t vote all the time, they vote when they think it is important and it’s on the ballot – 90 percennt of themm vote Republican.”READ MORE: Trump branded ‘biggest loser’ for Republicans after tragic midterms Abortion is a stronger issue for pro-life Republicans (Image: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE)He pointed out that in Pennsylvania where the Democrats took the Senate seat off the Republicans, the MAGA candidate Dr Mehmet Oz, who is pro-life, picked up more votes in city areas with pro-choice voters than Trump did in 2020 but less in predominantly pro-life rural areas.However, Associated Press (AP) has pointed out that “the battle for freedom” has been central to two of the star turns of the election who could be facing off in the Presidential race in 2024.While Republican Ron DeSantis won in Florida on tackling woke issues, supporting free speech and opposing lockdowns, Democrat California governor Gavin Newsom won convincingly on a ticket promoting women’s right to choose with abortion.’We are the freedom party, and his view is we should say it,’ Newsom campaign spokesman Nathan Click told AP.DON’T MISSRepublicans in UK toasted Trump’s fall explains DAVID MADDOX [REVEAL]US midterms are proof, as if needed, the USA is still divided [REACT]’Time for Republicans to end the Trump purgatory and begin new era’ [INSIGHT]