Poland re-arms as EU power shifts from West to East

Poland’s Defence Ministry executive, Mariusz Blaszczak, after receiving 14 Abrams tanks from the US Poland is fast emerging as the major military power within Continental Europe – as increasingly assertive in defence as it is in politics. Fresh from its latest bust-up with Brussels – where Poland and its ally Hungary have objected to the latest pan-EU asylum plan – and as NATO looks set to rebuff ally Ukraine’s hopes of membership, Poland is massively beefing up its military. Almost a mirror image of Japan, a fellow conservative democracy in Asia, which is faced with a perceived nearby threat (in Tokyo’s case, from China), Poland is also militarising fast. In the case of both countries, their nationalist self-confidence may be inspiring a newfound assertiveness when it comes to matters of defence. Compared with a demilitarising Western Europe (countries like the UK struggle to hit a target of two percent of GDP spent on defence), the Poles will soon be spending anywhere between four and five per cent of GDP on the military. Before long Poland will boast Europe’s largest combat-ready army outside Russia, as well as Europe’s largest fleet of military helicopters. To beef up its military arsenal – Poland already has more tanks and howitzers than Germany – Warsaw is turning to another nationalist democracy, South Korea, as well as the US, which is increasingly impressed by Poland doing what others in Europe have frequently refused to do: shoulder more of the burden of its own security. Hardly a surprise that Poland has turned less to fellow EU member states, with Western European countries perhaps paying the price for constantly picking fights with Poland (and Hungary) over perceived rule of law issues, something Budapest and Warsaw believe has more to do with their traditionalist beliefs and values. Although Poland is relying on imports for now, given that the country is becoming a major industrial power on the Continent (it is now a major outsource centre for German industry, for instance), in the future it may be able to manufacture much of its military hardware domestically as well. Poland is also shaming any hope of a future pan-EU army. Warsaw isn’t hanging around for the French and Germans, but deciding to go its own way, building up its military might as the linchpin of security in its region of Europe. Don’t think Warsaw wants to rely on Uncle Sam too much either. The Poles have deep reservations about President Biden winning a second term, given what many in Central and Eastern Europe see as perceived hostility from sections of the Democratic Party. Taken together, and as the EU splits east-by-west along cultural and political lines, a more powerful Poland – whose economy has also shown stellar growth in recent years – may feel emboldened to strike out on its own, perhaps with its ally Hungary. Other Central and Eastern EU states which right now fear breaking away from Brussels’ economic and security umbrella may feel more confidence in doing so if Poland can lead a new economic, security and political alliance in the region. As Ukraine’s aspirations of joining NATO look set to be dashed, Warsaw may be able to lead a new European confederation in the EU’s east, offering an alternative to the bloc it belongs to yet continually butts heads with. While a more assertive Poland should aid the EU, in reality – given the ongoing disputes between liberal Western Europe, and conservative states like Poland in Central and Eastern Europe – Brussels is unlikely to benefit. Poland, like other countries in its region, take their security extremely seriously, and enjoy a nationalist self-confidence which is inspiring a rejuvenating assertiveness on the world stage. Poland is fast emerging as a major defence, economic and political player in Europe. Alongside ally Hungary, it may be well-placed to form a new club out of the remnants of the old EU. The UK should take note of this fast-changing landscape in Europe: a new power is emerging on the Continent.