Lukashenko to keep out of war as 90 percent of Belarus oppose invasion

Belarus ‘will probably not get involved in the war’ in Ukraine despite President Lukashenko’s close relationship with Putin because ’90 percent of Belarusian society’ oppose intervention, an expert has said. Retired air Vice-Marshal Sean Bell, speaking to Sky News, described the Belarusian ties to Russia as ‘interesting’ since while it seems Lukahsenko’s position of power is predicated on supporting Putin, the country’s population appear to oppose both the war and their President.Reports have also surfaced of late that currently serving Belarusian military personnel would either refuse orders to invade Ukraine or would switch sides and join the Ukrainians. Mr Bell said: ‘If I was a military guy, Belarus shares a very long border with Ukraine and if you wanted to take out the seat of power, Kyiv, I would much rather do it from Belarus than I would from Russia. ‘Lukashenko, who is the leader in Belarus and who is a puppet of the Putin regime, only has a standing army of about 15,000 soldiers. Now, Putin needs hundreds of thousands, not tens of thousands, of soldiers. ‘There is an interesting relationship between these two guys because they are sort of mutually dependent. ‘A good example of that is that we are suffering with energy prices in this country. Belarus is currently being provided gas by Russia at only five percent of the cost we are paying for it. Clearly Putin is keeping Belarus sweet. Alexander Lukashenko position of power is predicated on supporting Putin (Image: GETTY ) Russia launched air raids and missile strikes against Ukrainian targets from Belarusian territory (Image: EXPRESS)’But the flipside of that is Belarusian society is 90 percent certain they do not want to get involved in the war. ‘So, it is an interesting relationship between the two. What looks likely is that while Belarus probably will not get involved in the actual war, they are definitely going to be helping to facilitate Putin’s aides.’While Belarus has not supplied any of its Armed Forces to the Russian war effort in Ukraine, it has served as a support for Putin since February. At the beginning of the war, Russian troops made use of the proximity of the Belrusian border to the Ukrainian city of Kyiv and marched on the capital from within Lukahsenko’s territory. READ MORE: Belarus denies invasion fears as Lukashenko amasses joint force [REVEAL]  Lukashenko and Putin meet at a Heads of State Council meeting on October 14 (Image: GETTY )The Belarusian leader allowed his country to serve as a gateway for invading Russian troops, and has also permitted Russia to launch air raids and missile strikes against Ukrainian targets from Belarusian territory.Whether or not Lukashenko himself supports the invasion is unknown, though in May he said he believed the ‘operation had dragged on’. But his beliefs are likely immaterial given his dependence on Putin for political survival; to defy Russia would be, experts believe, to compromise his own position of power in Belarus. And in exchange for Moscow’s support, Lukashenko effectively agreed to abandon his earlier criticism of Russian aggression against Ukraine.DON’T MISS: Lukashenko in USSR-inspired move to use children for harvesting work [REPORT]Putin meets with old Soviet Union alliance as he plots breakaway  [REVEAL] Lukashenko war bluff called as Belarusian troops at risk of defecting [INSIGHT]  Thousands protested in Belarus after Lukashenko claimed a fraudulent victory in the 2020 election (Image: GETTY )Nonetheless, any attempt to force Belarusians to join the invasion of Ukraine would be fraught with dangers for the President’s regime. An August 2022 poll conducted by Chatham House found that just three percent of Belarusians supported their country’s participation in Russia’s war. Experts have also suggested currently serving Belarusian military personnel would either refuse orders to invade Ukraine or would switch sides and join the Ukrainians should they be called upon. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya also called on military officers and other personnel of the Belarusian army to sabotage any offensive actions and report plans for mobilisation to the independent media.READ NEXT: Ukraine preparing for ‘crucial’ battle in Kherson before winter hitsRussian economy ‘can’t go on’ after Putin blunderPanicking Russians stocking up on radiation pills, warns professorUkraine wiped out more than 90% of some Russia squads, claims expert Russian troops accidentally strike themselves as grenade bounces back