 does not believe loyalist paramilitary groups, based on a current assessment, will break their 1994 ceasefires.But it does acknowledge tension within loyalist communities has risen lately.Much of this is down to talk, before being corrected, of joint London-Dublin rule being imposed."As a collective, they are not moving to a more 'military' footing," a senior security source said.The assessment involved the input of the security service, MI5.This is not a new development as far as evaluating whether loyalist groups, principally the UVF and the UDA, pose any national security threat.But the fact this is being briefed out is a warning they are being watched very closely.MI5 operations in Northern Ireland have historically been much more focused on dissident republican groups.The language and the sentiment of a recent letter from the Loyalist Communities Council (LCC) to Unionist leaders, which spoke of "dire consequences", was not new.Irish ministers were first told they were not welcome in Northern Ireland in June 2021 and months prior to that, the UK Government was informed the basis of the ceasefires had been undermined by the Irish Sea border.Among LCC members are representatives of the UVF, UDA and Red Hand Commando - proscribed organisations, significant elements of which remain deeply involved in criminality, such as drug dealing and extortion, and who continue to recruit.The LCC was formed in 2015 to address social issues in loyalist communities and help reduce paramilitary activity.During the course of the last two years, the LCC, a legal organisation, has met Northern Ireland Office officials, Lord Frost, when he was Brexit minister, and the DUP.So what was behind the latest letter?"A lot of it was sabre-rattling," said one person aware of loyalist thinking.Image source, Charles McQuillanImage cap){kind=link}
The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) does not believe loyalist paramilitary groups, based on a current assessment, will break their 1994 ceasefires.
But it does acknowledge tension within loyalist communities has risen lately.
Much of this is down to talk, before being corrected, of joint London-Dublin rule being imposed.
“As a collective, they are not moving to a more ‘military’ footing,” a senior security source said.
The assessment involved the input of the security service, MI5.