‘It’s falling’

This year the global economy has been shattered by war in Ukraine, rocketing energy prices, Covid lockdowns in China and the cost of living crisis.As if all that wasn’t bad enough, interest rates have shot up too, threatening a house price crash.Yet with luck, this afternoon may go down as the turning point. The moment that suggested the worst may soon be over.I may be getting carried away here, but there is so much doom and gloom around I thought I’d do my best to spread a little optimism.Today, the US published its latest inflation figure, and this time it was LOWER than expected.Consumer price rose by 7.7 percent in the year to October, down from 8.2 percent in September (it was even higher in June at 9.1 percent).That is still well above the US target rate of two percent, but it is a step in the right direction and I’m thrilled to see it.I’m hoping it indicates that inflation will start falling over here, too. This year has been carnage but the future may now be a little brighter (Image: Getty)Consumer price growth has been even higher in the UK, as the weak pound has driven up the cost of imported goods and services.In September, UK inflation stood at 10.1 percent, causing misery across the country as essentials such as food and fuel rocket out of reach.Millions are bracing themselves for the toughest winter in decades, as energy bills look set to put further pressure on our pockets, despite the Energy Price Guarantee.If today’s US inflation figure is any guide to UK inflation, the outlook may just be a little less grim.Prices won’t fall, but the rate of growth may finally start to slow.READ MORE: ‘Worst BoE boss ever’ takes huge interest rate gambleSlowing inflation will also allow central bankers to ease the pace of interest rate hikes.In the US, markets were bracing for the US Federal Reserve to hike its fund rate by another 0.75 percent at its next meeting.Analysts have now downgraded that to 0.5 percent and expectations may soon fall further. The US stock market rocketed on the news, with Wall Street’s S&P 500 index jumping by a massive 4.28 percent.So I’m not the only one thrilled here.President Joe Biden dived in to take credit, saying today’s news represented “progress” in the fight to bring price growth under control and will ‘help families with the cost of living’.Inflation isn’t beaten yet, but we’re on the way.The UK has already seen one spin-off benefit.Only a couple of weeks ago analysts were claiming the pound would collapse to $1 or less, due to the backlash against former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s disastrous mini-Budget.DON’T MISS:Awkward moment UN chief realises he’s reading the wrong speech at COP [REVEAL]Leeds Building Society boosts interest on fixed rate saver to 4.5% [LATEST]Chloe Madeley gutted by having to live with parents after giving birth [INSIGHT] US President Joe Biden has something to smile about today (Image: Getty)Lower US inflation and interest rate expectations have knocked the dollar. Sterling has bounced by a huge 2.58 percent against the greenback to trade at $1.166.That’s way above the parity we all feared. It will also make petrol slightly cheaper, as that is priced in US dollars.There are other signs that inflation may slow. Europe looks set to avoid a winter energy shock, with European storage facilities full, reducing their dependence on Vladimir Putin’s oil and gas imports.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is working on a deal to buy liquid natural gas from the US, which will help secure affordable supplies.As I wrote last week, rain in Norway is coming to our rescue, too.A million apologies if I’m jumping the gun here, I’ve had to process a one-way flow of bad news this year so I may be overreacting to a rare break in the storm.There are still plenty of reasons to be anxious, especially with Chancellor Jeremy Hunt lining up a brutal autumn statement of tax hikes and spending cuts, and the Bank of England likely to hike base rates further.Yet inflation is now falling rather than rising, and that has to be a good thing.