‘Iran’s regime could be preparing for war’

Josep Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, warned in comments to the press on Monday that should there be documented evidence of such a violation, consequences would be severe. And though very little has been said on any potential plan to suspend, or even scrap negotiations, Iran’s increased belligerence, and more to the point, refusal to act a trustworthy partner to the West, is making any nuclear resolution unattainable.Maybe more so in view of the fact that Russia is a party to such negotiations.But drones are not the only issue … if only! The Washington Post cited this week ‘an intelligence assessment shared in recent days with Ukrainian and US officials [that] contends Iran’s armaments industry is preparing a first shipment of [surface-to-surface] Fateh-110 and Zolfagher missiles…’A well-known and long-standing sponsor of terrorism across the world, the Islamic Republic’s very ideology is geared towards export – a notion which seems to have escaped even the most astute Western strategists of late as they debate containment through normalisation.Rather than fool ourselves into believing that the Iran of the ayatollahs could be reformed by close proximity to our democracies, it may be time for the penny to drop, and us to confront the reality we have so conveniently worked to escape – not only to our great shame, but against our most fundamental interests.As it were we were warned. It was Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who, at the onset of his Islamic revolutionary project declared, rather unequivocally I may add, ‘We should try hard to export our revolution to the world… we shall confront the world with our ideology.Indeed, Iran’s constitution calls on its military forces to ‘extend the sovereignty of God’s law throughout the world.’ For Iran’s leaders, supporting Islam meant supporting revolution, and all those who sought to weaken their appointed enemies. Russia here is but a vehicle of that agenda. Iran’s decision to furnish Russia with its Kamikaze drones may be but a precursor (Image: GETTY)Typifying a view common to revolutionary regimes, Iran’s leaders saw themselves on the defensive yet believed that aggressively promoting their revolution was the best means of ensuring its survival.Ayatollah Khomeini put it plainly when he noted, ‘All the superpowers and the great powers have risen to destroy us. If we remain in an enclosed environment we shall definitely face defeat.’Just as Iran was meant as a convenient platform upon which to launch Khomeini’s new system of governance [the Governance of the Jurist] which gave way to Iran’s a de facto absolute theocracy, 1979 was to mark the birth of a new era – that of Islamism’s grand war against not only Western democracies but all those who would refuse the Islamic Republic’s ideological diktat.To support, assert and export such  ‘vision’ Tehran has wielded Terror to first destabilise hostile neighbours and second project power and influence far beyond the confine of its borders, eroding at the will of Western capitals as governments found themselves caught in the net of pan-Islamism.The self-proclaimed champion of the dispossessed, Tehran’s move to the Left should come to no surprise, even though it has often meant aligning itself with profoundly secular movements.Iran’s belligerence today, the bravado with which it has systematically and at every turn challenged the Western block, wielding hostage diplomacy to extract concessions, needs to be read within the context of this alliance with left-wing movements.Four decades on the Islamic Republic has successfully encircled our Western capitals -and  I would add breached, since its outposts exist here, in the UK,  by way of an intricate network of NGOs and media institutions.Today the Islamic Republic finds itself at a critical juncture in its history, its seat of power threatened by the very people who were meant to sustain it – Iranians. Convulsed by a counter-revolutionary movement born out of a desire to assert secular democratic values, the regime has had to withdraw behind its hardliners, and display violence both inwards – against its people, and outward – against its critics to guarantee its survival.Iran’s decision to furnish Russia with its Kamikaze drones may be but a precursor – an insight into the Terror the regime will ambition to unleash against not only our national interests but that of our most strategic partners.In the Middle East, Iran is already posturing for a conflict with Israel through its terror proxies – namely Hezbollah, an organisation its helped birth in the 1980s to that it could claim prominence within the Islamic world as an advocate for Palestinians.News broke earlier this week that Hezbollah is building runways in Syria – in Al Mayadeen east of Deir ez-Zor to launch Iran’s Kamikaze drones in view of overwhelming Israel’s air defence.  IRGC, the military arm of the Iranian regime, already transferred drilling and construction equipment to the area, a move which has been met with utmost apathy by the West.In Musandam (a formerly self-ruled and independent territory which was absorbed by Oman in the 1970s) sources have pointed to unusual terror outfits’ movements, with a great influx of Hezbollah, IRGC and Houthi fighters, as well as military equipments. While it is impossible at this stage to ascertain what such mobilisation may lead to, it remains clear that Iran is manning up and arming up, within reach of not only Jerusalem but other capitals in the region, namely Riyadh.If we failed to appreciate Russia’s threat towards Ukraine when all markers pointed to an imminent attack, we may want this time around to preempt Iran’s increased belligerence and realise that by playing defence and containment we may pay dearly, and so will our partners.