Election Day live: Midterm 2022 polls, news and analysis

LIVE – Updated at 14:23 With Election Day in this year’s midterms now underway, polls are showing that the contest to control the US Senate is down to the wire, while Republicans are placed to retake the House of Representatives.Two of the most important Senate races remain essentially deadlocked, with Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock effectively tied with Herschel Walker in Georgia and his would-be counterpart John Fetterman struggling to hold off Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.Early vote numbers, meanwhile, have surged past the total reached in the 2018 midterm cycle – particularly in Georgia, where Democrats hope the more than 2 million votes already cast will favour them.In the last few days, Joe Biden has campaigned in Albuquerque, San Diego, and Joliet, Illinois, before joining former President Barack Obama in Philadelphia. Former president Donald Trump held a rally for JD Vance in Ohio last night, where he teased a presidential campaign announcement on 15 November. Fetterman supporters undeterred by stroke as Obama does last-minute campaignWill Trump’s scandal-plagued Senate endorsements come back to bite the GOP?Midterm spending hits new highTrump ‘to announce presidential bid’ in a week’s time 14:10 , Andrew Naughtie Once the midterm polls close later tonight, the results will come in at an extremely uneven pace – something many on the right will falsely claim indicates some form of electoral malfeasance. But however sporadic the inflow of data, you can follow the numbers live on The Independent; for the Senate map click here, and for House results click here. 13:40 , Andrew Naughtie In what could be a dangerous sign for Democrats heading into today’s midterms, the party’s candidates in New Hampshire are fighting for their political lives according to the newest polling available.According to the University of New Hampshire Survey Centre’s Granite State Poll, the eight-point lead Ms Hassan held against Mr Bolduc in September has evaporated, leaving her just two per cent ahead of the ex-military officer by a margin of 50 per cent to 48 per cent.If GOP support materialises today just one to two points beyond what pollsters expect around the country, Democrats could be in for a real shock when they wake up tomorrow.Read more in The Independent: © Provided by The Independent New Hampshire Senate and House races appear deadlocked in last-minute poll 13:10 , Andrew Naughtie Eager to help Democrats win the messaging war on economic issues as polls show Americans turning to Republicans for that topic, Bernie Sanders was in several states over the weekend as he makes one final push to help his party hold the House and Senate.The progressive senator just concluded a 19-stop multi-state tour in an effort to drive voter turnout among progressives, independents, and particularly his younger Democratic fan base as the midterm elections come down to the wire and a number of key races look to be toss-ups.’While the Democrats are not doing everything I would like them to do, trust me, they are a million times better than what the Republicans will bring you,’ Mr Sanders warned during a stop in Wisconsin.Read more in The Independent: © Provided by The Independent Bernie Sanders warns ‘future of this country’ at stake in final midterm blitz 12:40 , Andrew Naughtie Christina Bobb, a former OAN host who serves as one of Donald Trump’s attorneys in the Mar-a-Lago affair, appeared on the Trump-backing Right Side Broadcasting Network last night as her boss prepared for his Ohio rally – and added to the chorus of right-wing voices already spinning a narrative of Democratic electoral malfeasance if the results of the midterms do not fall in Republicans’ favour by the early hours of Wednesday.Take a listen:One more time: Many key states-thanks to laws enacted by Republican-controlled legislatures-aren’t even allowed to *start* counting mail-in votes until after polls close.It’s not ‘suspicious’ when those states count mail-in votes last; it’s what they’re legally required to do. https://t.co/JoSir6HgId- Steve Vladeck (@steve_vladeck) November 8, 2022This projection for an acceptable rate of vote-counting is entirely arbitrary, and rests on a template conspiracy theory that Democrats will somehow tamper with the vote tallies after all voting is completed – in turn providing a premise to question the validity of all mail-in ballots, which tend to be added to tallies later in the counting process, tend to favour Democrats, and in some states can be added to the total count well after in-person voting closes. 11:40 , Andrew Naughtie Another election night across America means another long night of waiting for results to come in from the furthest reaches of the country – and Americans may be waiting even longer than that for the final results to come in.There are a lot of factors to consider, from mail-in ballots to runoffs, that could mean the balance of the Senate or even House will take hours or even days to decide. It could lead to an uncertain situation at a time when many expect those aligned with Donald Trump to take such opportunities to declare themselves the winners before votes are counted.Read more about how votes will be counted in the coming days from The Independent: © Provided by The Independent When will we know the midterm election results state by state? 10:50 , Sravasti Dasgupta The Republicans are strongly tipped to re-take the US House due to a favourable political environment and the effects of the redistricting process.But there is still considerable uncertainty about how Election Night will play out.Here are the races Dave Wasserman of The Cook Political Report suggests watching as the polls close on Tuesday to get an indication of how the night is going to go.Abe Asher reports: © Provided by The Independent Key races US House races to watch early on election night 10:30 , John Bowden Federal law enforcement officials will be monitoring election processes in two dozen states as experts warn of the potential for both domestic and international interference in the US midterm elections.This year, the agency appears to be bolstering voter protections in states that have faced right-wing threats of election interference, from ballot drop-box ‘vigilantes’ in Arizona to an increase in partisan poll watchers fuelled by baseless voter fraud conspiracy theories.Read more about the efforts of the federal government to protect Americans’ right to vote: © Provided by The Independent Justice Department to monitor polls on Election Day in 24 states 09:30 , John Bowden Democrats have an uphill battle to win if they want to hold on to control of the House today, but don’t count the party out just yet.Many are hoping that a wave of women voters, incensed by the Supreme Court’s gutting of federal abortion protections, will materialize to aid the left hold on to power in Tuesday’s matchups. Such a wave would be a shock to pollsters, who have predicted a GOP takeover for months.The Independent took a look at what the Democratic Party’s priorities would be for the second half of Joe Biden’s term were they able to hold on to majorities in the House and Senate: © Provided by The Independent Inside the new Democratic Congress if the party pulls off a major midterm win 08:30 , John Bowden If Republicans pull off a victory for control of the House today, they will be able to throw a major wrench into Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. But there’s more chaos that a GOP majority could pull off in the lower chamber.Many signs point to Republicans having an advantage going into today’s midterm elections, though Democrats including Nancy Pelosi have held out hope of protecting a majority in the lower chamber.Read more about the possibilities presented by the election of a GOP House majority from Andrew Feinberg: © Provided by The Independent All the ways the GOP could upend America if they win the House 07:30 , John Bowden Election Day is not a federal holiday in the United States (though Democrats pushed earlier this year, unsuccessfully, to make it one). So what does that mean for America’s schools tomorrow?Well, it’s complicated, because many school districts use buildings that double as polling places for local elections.Understand how the laws work with this explainer from The Independent: © Provided by The Independent Midterms 2022: Is there school on election day? 05:30 , John Bowden PresidentJoe Biden’s midterm election eve rally in Maryland turned combative when the president hit back at a heckler who was aiming to interrupt the event.Noticing a man in an Uncle Sam hat heckling him from the upper reaches of the venue at Bowie State University, Mr Biden paused his address, looked up towards the heckler, and said, ‘Hey! Hey man! Don’t jump! You look crazy enough to jump – don’t jump!’Watch video of the moment below, and read more about Joe Biden’s history with hecklers in The Independent:Biden: Don’t jump, you look crazy enough to jump *camera switches to heckler* pic.twitter.com/Y56QOjm7Gb- Acyn (@Acyn) November 8, 2022 04:30 , John Bowden Former president Donald Trump on Monday ended an hours-long rehashing of old grievances at a rally for Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance without announcing his intention to run for president in 2024.Many had expected that Mr Trump planned to do so at his rally this evening in Dayton, but instead the ex-president told his fans to stay tuned.’Not to detract from tomorrow’s very important, even critical election – and I would say in the strongest way it’s a country saving election … I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,’ said Mr Trump on Monday.Read more in The Independent: © Provided by The Independent Trump delays 2024 announcement until after midterms despite election eve tease 03:33 , John Bowden Donald Trump’s attorney showed the latests signs of the former president’s desire to begin attacking his presumed 2024 primary rival, Ron DeSantis, this weekend during an interview with a right-wing broadcaster.Alina Habba was speaking on Right Side Broadcasting, a YouTube channel that typically provides live coverage of Mr Trump’s various events, when she flatly insisted that the Florida governor needed to ‘stay in Florida’ and not challenge Mr Trump for the 2024 nomination.’He needs to stay in Florida,’ she warned. ‘Just stay where you are. You are doing a great job in Florida.’Read more in The Independent: © Provided by The Independent Trump lawyer issues warning to DeSantis as 2024 rivalry turns nasty 02:35 , John Bowden Donald Trump was in Dayton, Ohio on Monday stumping one last time for JD Vance as Republicans hope to keep Ohio’s open Senate seat red in tomorrow’s elections.Much of Trumpworld is abuzz with speculation regarding whether the ex-president planned to announce his long-expected 2024 bid for the presidency at tonight’s rally.As a result, the rally itself took on a larger audience than other Trump rallies have recently, with even the press box being filled up as local and national outlets waited for an announcement that could shake up the political landscape for the rest of 2022, if not tomorrow’s midterm elections.Watch here:Watch live: Donald Trump holds Ohio rally ahead of midterms https://t.co/gSzA2b78x1- The Independent (@Independent) November 8, 2022 01:00 , John Bowden Left-leaning outlet Data for Progress is out with a final set of pre-election polls in several states which skew noticeably in favour of GOP candidates.Marco Rubio, in Florida, leads his opponent Val Demings by 12 points in the Data for Progress survey of Florida while the outlet also has Adam Laxalt leading Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada by two points.Read through the results here:Today, Data for Progress released our final Senate polls of the 2022 midterms. Democrats lead in Colorado, Oregon, and New Hampshire. Republicans lead in North Carolina, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio.Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are within the margin of error.Polls below. ⬇️- Data for Progress (@DataProgress) November 8, 2022 00:31 , John Bowden While Donald Trump prepares to go onstage in Ohio – and is rumoured to be planning a 2024 announcement – President Joe Biden is in Maryland, appearing at a midterm eve rally of his own.Mr Biden joined the stage with Wes Moore, the Democratic candidate favoured to be the state’s next governor, as well as incumbent Senator Chris Van Hollen, who is up for reelection.Watch here:LIVE: President Biden speaks in Maryland – https://t.co/FU8rvE2lqt https://t.co/FfzuTOMEzt- WBAL-TV 11 Baltimore (@wbaltv11) November 8, 2022 00:06 , John Bowden Donald Trump’s rally is underway in Ohio, with the president set to address his fans at 8 pm eastern.The rally is being held in Dayton, and is expected to be attended by his chosen US Senate candidate, JD Vance, as well as the state’s Republican governor, Mike DeWine.The Independent will carry Donald Trump’s remarks live on our Twitter and Facebook. Stay tuned. Monday 7 November 2022 23:31 , John Bowden A lawsuit from GOP candidate for secretary of state Kristina Karamo – who would serve as the state’s chief elections officer, if elected – sought to make Detroiters either vote in person or obtain an absentee ballot in person. If successful, she would have seen thousands of otherwise valid ballots tossed from this week’s midterm races.But the attempt to do so was a ‘clear violation’ of voters’ constitutional rights, according to Wayne County Circuit Court Chief Judge Timothy Kenny.Read more from Alex Woodward: © Provided by The Independent Republicans are suing to disqualify voters in battleground states Monday 7 November 2022 23:00 , John Bowden Nikki Haley may have gone too far at a rally this week when she declared that Georgia voters need to ‘deport’ Senator Raphael Warnock at the ballot box tomorrow.’Legal immigrants are more patriotic than the leftists these days,’ she said at a rally for his opponent, Herschel Walker. ‘They knew they worked to come into America, and they love America. They want the laws followed in America, so the only person we need to make sure we deport is Warnock.’Read more in The Independent: © Provided by The Independent Nikki Haley faces backlash after calling for Raphael Warnock to be deported Monday 7 November 2022 22:32 , John Bowden A final poll in the Wisconsin Senate race has placed incumbent Senator Ron Johnson just one point ahead of his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes. Mr Johnson was seen as one of the top opportunities for a Democratic pickup in 2022, but Mr Barnes failed to take a polling lead during the campaign.Other polls released so far this month have put Mr Johnson at as high as a six-point margin against Mr Barnes.Mr Johnson faced scrutiny for his role in Donald Trump’s scheme to overturn the 2020 election throughout the campaign, but painted his opponent as a far-left radical and a socialist in return. Monday 7 November 2022 22:00 , John Bowden The final polls of the Georgia and Pennsylvania Senate races are out, and both contest