. In six recent polls, Trump is up by at least 30 points; in one of them by 44. Support for his strongest opponent, Ron DeSantis, is dropping below 20 per cent; according to Harvard/Harris, the Florida governor is almost neck-and-neck with bubbly entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (DeSantis backers take comfort in John McCain's collapse and resurgence in 2008, but McCain, at this point in the cycle, was only 12 points behind Rudy Giuliani). Those Trump leads are reflected in Iowa (an average of 33 per cent) and New Hampshire (24 per cent). DeSantis and Mike Pence – the two 'similar to Trump but not as bad as Trump' candidates – were gambling on the indictments dragging the frontrunner down, yet they've had the opposite effect. Because – here comes reason number two – Trump has transformed his legal problems into a political crusade. At the start of the campaign, he was low-energy, lacking a clear agenda: the effort to put him in jail has invigorated the candidate and handed him a motivating issue eclipsing smaller controversies, such as his relative moderation on abortion or Disney. His polling and fundraising both rose after the first indictment – rallying a generous plurality of Republican voters who are apparently convinced he is innocent. That said, his fundraising didn't bounce as high after the second indictment. According to campaign filings, one of Trump's organisations has spent an astonishing $40){kind=link}
The former president is in a better political position now than in 2015 or 2019 – for four big reasons
Another day, another indictment. Trump’s third, for attempted subversion of democracy, is the “big one” because Americans, when polled, seem to take the charges very seriously – and roughly two-thirds believe that he shouldn’t serve a second term if convicted. Yet for all the legal drama, and despite the gravity of the allegations, Trump remains an even bet to be the next President of the United States. I can give you four good reasons why.
First, his domination of the Republican field is total (to paraphrase Hillary Clinton, his basket overfloweth with deplorables). In six recent polls, Trump is up by at least 30 points; in one of them by 44. Support for his strongest opponent, Ron DeSantis, is dropping below 20 per cent; according to Harvard/Harris, the Florida governor is almost neck-and-neck with bubbly entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (DeSantis backers take comfort in John McCain’s collapse and resurgence in 2008, but McCain, at this point in the cycle, was only 12 points behind Rudy Giuliani).
Those Trump leads are reflected in Iowa (an average of 33 per cent) and New Hampshire (24 per cent). DeSantis and Mike Pence – the two “similar to Trump but not as bad as Trump” candidates – were gambling on the indictments dragging the frontrunner down, yet they’ve had the opposite effect.
Because – here comes reason number two – Trump has transformed his legal problems into a political crusade. At the start of the campaign, he was low-energy, lacking a clear agenda: the effort to put him in jail has invigorated the candidate and handed him a motivating issue eclipsing smaller controversies, such as his relative moderation on abortion or Disney.