China’s Xi is planning for war and next Taiwan leader is preparing for worst

Xi Jinping (Image: Getty) Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping has urged his military – the People’s Liberation Army – to deepen war and combat planning to increase the chances of victory in battle. This is according to China’s official news agency, Xinhua, and as reported by Reuters . Reuters also separately reported that Lai Ching-te – front-runner for January’s Presidential election in Taiwan and the CCP’s least-preferred candidate – said he would speed up military reforms to make Taiwan’s armed forces agile and capable of withstanding conflict. For his part, Xi – speaking to PLA troops at the Eastern Theater Command (responsible for covering the Taiwan Strait) – said the world had entered a new period of turmoil and China’s security situation had become more unstable. The CCP leader’s words came as US Treasury Secretary and formed Federal Reserve boss, Janet Yellen, arrived in Beijing, seemingly confirming suspicions that the CCP is showing one face to its own people and another to the wider world. Back in Taiwan, Lai was telling foreign diplomats that building up Taiwan’s deterrence was key: “We will transition to an asymmetric fighting force with greater survivable, agile and cost-effective capabilities,” he said. While Xi would prefer unification with Taiwan by stealth, and Lai is hoping beefed-up defence guards against China blockading or invading the island democracy, it is clear that a Lai victory in January would make the CCP write off any hope of unifying through peaceful means (the vast majority of Taiwanese also do not want to unify with China). This comes as US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told a recent gathering in Washington that Xi had not yet made a decision on whether to order military unification by 2027. Still, Xi and the CCP have banked their reputations in no small part on unification with Taiwan, without which China cannot break through the ‘first island chain’ – consisting of Western-allied countries like Japan and the Philippines – which currently blocks China from projecting power into its own backyard. Taking Taiwan – which sits right in the middle of the chain – would not only eliminate an ethnically Chinese democracy on China’s doorstep, and give Beijing control over Taiwan’s semiconductors, but enable the PLA to dominate the sea lanes of the Western Pacific, push the US out of the region, and totally change the balance of power in Asia. This all comes as China recently simulated a naval war scenario with the US, albeit the PLA did not fare especially well in the analysis (other war games have shown the US to fare worse). On America’s and Taiwan’s side, the 110-mile Taiwan Strait is tough to cross; Taiwan has formidable obstacles (few beaches to land at, rugged and mountainous terrain, and the potential for urban warfare); with US troops stationed north and south of Taiwan in Japan and the Philippines, and the US having the technologically-superior military. In China’s favour, there is the home advantage; Taiwan is an island, meaning once battle starts it will be tough to get supplies in and people out; most of Taiwan’s people and infrastructure is on the side facing China; and China has greater industrial capacity than the US, with quantity having a quality all of its own even if the US has the tech edge. China also calculates that – right now – the West would not dare apply the kind of sanctions it has applied to Russia to China given the blowback this would create to the West, dependent as it remains on Chinese manufacturing and the Chinese market. China is also mindful of how many weapons the US has supplied Ukraine with which, so far as Beijing sees it, undermines America’s ability to equip Taiwan, for the time being at least, thereby creating a window of opportunity for the CCP. People who doubt China’s resolve should remember that without Taiwan the CCP cannot hope to achieve long-desired peer status with the US. Moreover, for those who consider that China will not risk economic ruin for political purposes and face-saving, just remember last year’s economically-ruinous Zero Covid policies. Crucially, remember how mass protests caused Beijing to dramatically U-turn on Zero Covid – again for face-saving reasons – and given that the CCP has marched its people all the way to the top of the hill over Taiwan, Xi and his party will find it very difficult to march them all the way back down without huge loss of authority. China needs Taiwan, and 2027 is considered a key date, not least because that is when the next CCP congress takes place. For the US, bailing on Taiwan would destroy its authority, irreparably damaging its superpower status (and perhaps even the dollar). China cannot afford to lose Taiwan, but neither can the US afford to let China take it. As Xi ramps up the war-like rhetoric, and Taiwan’s Presidential front-runner displays commitment to protecting the island democracy, the heat is turning up on the world’s biggest geopolitical flashpoint.