As rains kill more than 100 in India, what makes south Asia’s monsoons more deadly?

Torrential downpours this week have led to the deaths of 100 people and unleashed havoc in northern India in what officials described as the worst monsoon the country has experienced in decades. The country’s deadly monsoon comes as several other nations the world over grapple with similar extreme weather. The northeastern US is under an emergency , China is evacuating thousands of people and Japan has reported its ‘heaviest rain ever experienced’, as per its weather department officials. Rains have battered neighbouring Pakistan as well, and the death toll there has reached 86, beginning 25 June and up to Tuesday evening. The deaths have brought reminders of the deadly deluge that devastated the country just a year ago. In India, downpours lashed several areas , from western Rajasthan to northern Jammu and Kashmir, and killing at least 100, with thousands more left stranded due to key highways getting damaged. A massive downpour in Delhi has left large swathes of the national capital submerged, including the central Connaught Place area and several key government buildings. Delhi received its highest single-day July rain since the 1980s on Sunday. People were seen wading through knee-deep water with several motorists stuck on roads that became rivers. The Yamuna river that cuts across Delhi crossed the danger mark of 205 metres above the mean sea level, with incessant rains along with dam water released from neighbouring Haryana prompting evacuations . On Wednesday, the river flowed close to 207.25m, precariously close to the all-time record of 207.49m reached in 1978, government officials said. A person wades through a flooded street after heavy rains in New Delhi The rains were far deadlier in the fragile mountainous states of Himachal Pradesh, the northern state most severely impacted, and Uttarakhand, where they triggered severe floods and deadly landslides, killing dozens. Shocking visuals showed floods washing away villages and key highways disrupting essential services in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab. Flood waters blocked the Indo-Tibet border road, while contact with over a dozen border villages was lost, reports said. Heavy rain and falling boulders killed four people and injured seven others in Uttarakhand on Tuesday. At least 20 people died in flash floods and other rain-related disasters in just one province of Himachal Pradesh. State chief minister Sukhvinder Sukhu on Monday said Himachal had not witnessed ‘such widespread heavy rains’ in over 50 years. This year’s monsoon has raised concerns among experts who warn that the climate crisis is playing a significant role in the intensification of such extreme weather. ‘It rains fewer hours, but when it rains, it rains very heavily,’ observed M Rajeevan, former secretary of India’s earth sciences ministry, according to Hindustan Times . ‘Recent heavy rains and flash floods remind us of one of important impacts of climate change on monsoon,’ he said. South Asia receives approximately 70-80 per cent of its annual rainfall during the monsoon season which starts late June and can often get severe and cause flash floods due to infrastructural vulnerabilities. This year, however, Delhi, Punjab and Himachal have received 112 per cent, 100 per cent and 70 per cent more rainfall than usual so far in this year’s monsoon that began on 1 June, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Climate scientists have raised an alarm over the monsoon’s changing patterns that are making rain more erratic, resulting in much more falling in a short period and leading to flash floods. ‘The ongoing spell of extremely heavy rains is due to the alignment of three weather systems, Western Disturbance over Western Himalayas, cyclonic circulation over northwestern plains, and Axis of Monsoon trough running across Indo-Gangetic Plains,’ explained Mahesh Palawat, the vice president of meteorology and climate change in private weather agency Skymet. Commuters use plastic sheets to protect themselves from rain in New Delhi ‘This alignment is not happening for the first time and is the usual pattern during the monsoon. However, global warming-led changes in monsoon patterns have made a difference,’ he said. ‘There has been a constant rise in both land and sea temperatures, which has increased the capacity of the air to hold moisture for a longer time. Thus, the role of climate change in the increasing extreme weather events in India has been strengthening with each passing year.’ Research in the past has already established the impact of the climate crisis on south Asia’s monsoon patterns. Last year’s devastating floods in Pakistan was also found to be a result of the climate crisis impact on monsoon patterns. But with this year’s record-shattering global warming, experts have said heat is also meddling with atmospheric and oceanic phenomena. ‘There have been extreme weather events earlier as well, but 2023 has been a unique year,’ said Raghu Murtugudde, a professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland. ‘Global warming is making a significant contribution but there are some other factors as well,’ Dr Murtugudde explained, adding that the El Nino, record north Atlantic Ocean temperatures and exceptional warming in the Arabian sea in recent years were among the contributing factors. Deadly floods cause havoc around the world as torrential rains lash India, US and Spain He also said that with wildfires being three times larger, more carbon was being released into the atmosphere, increasing greenhouse gases. According to a recent report by India’s earth sciences ministry, overall monsoonal rainfall, which already leads to repeated flooding, is projected to become more intense in the future and will affect larger areas driven by extreme heat and the climate crisis. Climate change impacts on India’s weather have been evident for several decades. The country has faced back-to-back deadly heatwaves , more frequent extreme temperature and rainfall events, droughts , sea-level rise and intensified severe cyclones. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) has warned of summer and monsoon precipitation increasing and becoming more frequent. The Indian subcontinent is projected to experience a 20 per cent surge in extreme rain events in the coming years. If the world continues to emit greenhouse gas emissions , these changes will lead to incessant and erratic rainfall, floods, intensified depressions and a higher frequency of cyclonic events along the eastern and western coasts.