‘West’s failure to crush Putin makes China Taiwan war more likely’

The West has yet to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin (Image: Getty)For all the talk about the Russian military’s failings, the fact the West has had to throw the kitchen sink at this war – to the point of depleting many of its own weapons – suggests Russia is hardly the spent force many hope it is.But the longer the conflict drags on, the greater the danger not just to Ukraine, but to Taiwan, the island democracy menaced by a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which views the former as a breakaway province.China means business. This perhaps explains why US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, recently warned that China is accelerating plans to seize Taiwan.The warning came after Blinken made a similar warning that China was ‘determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline’.Meanwhile, the head of the US Navy has warned about a possible Chinese invasion in the coming years.In the meantime, CCP leader Xi Jinping recently promoted a general who led the military command responsible for Taiwan, while the CCP leader again refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan.The longer the Ukraine conflict drags on, the more the West will feel compelled to send equipment and the more its attention is likely to be focused there.This means the West may either have to backpedal or up the ante, but that may mean increasing arms production and putting itself in harm’s way.That said, the US is clearly demonstrating commitment on two fronts. Aside from a growing military commitment to Taiwan, the US is to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, which could easily reach China. There are apparently plans for a squadron operations facility.Still, the ongoing supply of weaponry to Ukraine – especially of the types which Taiwan would also need – could not only risk depleting Western resources but could compromise arming Taiwan in the future, unless production ramps up quickly.Not only will it take time for the US to get its stockpiles back up, but some of the weapons promised to Taiwan have already been sent to Ukraine.Meanwhile, arms manufacturers are reluctant to open new production lines without a steady stream of long-term orders.Some US inventories are now reaching the minimum levels needed for war plans, with HIMARS, Javelins and Stringers all at limited inventory levels, and with the US having perhaps given around one-third of its Javelin and Stinger missiles to Ukraine.The question then is can the West equip Ukraine and Taiwan simultaneously, ensuring that its attention is given adequately to both.The CCP, meanwhile, may see a window of opportunity with some Western inventories lower than they should be, and the ability to supply Taiwan somewhat constrained.Meanwhile, although both China and the US are making moves to ‘decouple’ from each other, China knows that this has not yet advanced to the point where the West could comfortably apply Russia-style sanctions to the CCP in the event of war. But that also could change in the coming years.Finally, the longer the war drags on, the more it will look to the Chinese people that Russia cannot be defeated.While the opposite may be the perspective in the West, one has to understand that Chinese state media has never stopped telling its citizens Russia is both justified and winning.So long as the war in Ukraine goes on, the more pressure there will be on China to move on Taiwan, since, Chinese citizens will ask, if Russia can do this and withstand all the forces of the West, then why can’t we.The CCP also cannot afford the loss of face of implying they backed the wrong horse.The longer there is no conclusive victory in the war in Ukraine, the more it could play into the hands of China. Does this make a Western escalation or calls for a diplomatic solution more likely?Taiwan will be watching nervously for the answer as the war in Ukraine rumbles slowly on.