 shows that infections are predicted to continue to decline until January, but may start to rise significantly in the New Year. It means that a surge in infections that could see restrictions reimposed are unlikely to scupper Christmas plans. Professor Karl Friston, of UCL, said: 'It looks as if the current peak has passed. The long-term forecast suggests a subsequent peak after Christmas. 'This appears to be largely driven by seasonal fluctuations in transmission risk and a slower underlying increase, due to the emergence of new variants. 'One should perhaps also note that virulence has declined substantially, particularly in the face of vaccination. This means the morbidity and mortality of a large post-Christmas wave should be substantially less than previous years.' Booster programme key to drop in cases Latest data from the UK Health and Security Agency (UKHSA) also show that Covid infections, admissions and outbreaks have all fallen in the past week following a worrying spike in September. The government dashboard shows a 15 per cent decrease in reported Covid tests in the past week, as well as 15 per cent drop in admissions and a 10 per cent fall in deaths. Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UK Health Security Agency, said: 'The ongoing drop in Covid-19 cases and hospitalisation rates is a testament to the continued success of the autumn booster programme and it is hugely encouraging that 10 million people in England have already taken up their booster.' Latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is also showing a slow down. The total number of people in private households in the UK testing positive for Covid stood at 2.05 million in the week to October 17, broadly unchanged on 2.01 million in the previous week. Although the ONS infection){kind=link}
Infections may start to rise significantly in January
Britain is likely to enjoy a relatively Covid-free Christmas, experts have predicted, as the recent surge in cases appears to have stalled.
Modelling by University College London (UCL) shows that infections are predicted to continue to decline until January, but may start to rise significantly in the New Year.
It means that a surge in infections that could see restrictions reimposed are unlikely to scupper Christmas plans.
Professor Karl Friston, of UCL, said: “It looks as if the current peak has passed. The long-term forecast suggests a subsequent peak after Christmas.