UN: World faces 2.5C of warming as climate action ‘nowhere near’ levels needed

Pledges by countries to cut greenhouse gases will see the world warming by around 2.5C – well above agreed targets to limit dangerous climate change, a United Nations report shows.UN climate chief Simon Stiell warned that while there has been some progress this year, countries were ‘still nowhere near the scale and pace of emissions reductions’ needed to limit temperature rises to 1.5C over this century.Under the global Paris Agreement climate treaty, countries agreed to take action to limit global warming to 2C and pursue efforts to curb them to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.The world is already seeing increasing floods, storms, heatwaves and wildfires as a result of climate change, and beyond 1.5C of warming, more devastating weather extremes, crop damage and losses of key systems such as coral reefs are expected.The report from UN Climate Change assessed the combined climate pledges of 193 parties – countries and the European Union – submitted under the Paris Agreement, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5C worldSimon Stiell, UN Climate ChangeIt found the combined pledges of countries could put the world on track for around 2.5C of warming by the end of the century.Current commitments will increase greenhouse gas emissions by 10.6% by 2030 compared to 2010 levels, an improvement on last year’s assessment which found countries were on a path to emissions rises of 13.7% by the end of the decade.But the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2018 report showed that carbon emissions needed to be cut by 45% by 2030 on 2010 levels, and the latest science this year indicates there needs to be a 43% fall in greenhouse gases on 2019 levels in the next eight years to meet the 1.5C goal.Only 24 new or updated climate plans have been submitted since Cop26 in Glasgow, where all countries agreed to revisit and strengthen their plans, which Mr Stiell descried as ‘disappointing’.’The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year.’But the science is clear and so are our climate goals under the Paris Agreement.’We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5C world.’To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.’He added: ‘Government decisions and actions must reflect the level of urgency, the gravity of the threats we are facing, and the shortness of the time we have remaining to avoid the devastating consequences of runaway climate change.’A second report looked at long-term plans to move to net zero emissions by or around mid-century, which cover 62 parties to the Paris Agreement accounting for 83% of world GDP, 47% of the world’s population and around 69% of total energy consumption in 2019.It found that those countries’ emissions could be around 68% lower in 2050 than in 2019, if the-long term strategies are fully implemented on time – but warned that many are uncertain and postpone action that should be taken now.The UN report has been released ahead of the latest round of international climate negotiations, Cop27 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, and Mr Stiell urged countries to come to the talks to show how they will work to implement climate action through legislation, policies and progress.He also called for nations to make progress on issues including addressing the loss and damage poorer countries and communities are suffering from climate change, and finance flows to those nations to tackle global warming. It is critical that we do everything within our means to keep 1.5C in reach, as we promised in the Glasgow Climate PactAlok Sharma, Cop26 PresidentSameh Shoukry, Egyptian minister of foreign affairs who will be president of Cop27, said the report showed the world was off-track to keep the 1.5C goal alive.’This is a sobering moment, and we are in a race against time.’Several of those who are expected to do more, are far from doing enough, and the consequences of this is affecting lives and livelihoods across the globe,’ he warned, calling for a ‘transformative response at Cop27’.Cop26 president Alok Sharma said: ‘It is critical that we do everything within our means to keep 1.5C in reach, as we promised in the Glasgow Climate Pact.’These reports show that although we have made some progress – and every fraction of a degree counts – much more is needed urgently. We need the major emitters to step up and increase ambition ahead of Cop27.’