If war comes it will not be Russia but China who UK fights says Jonathan Saxty

UK may have to face China (Image: Getty) As Britain got a new Defence Secretary last week – with Grant Shapps offered his latest role – it is worth asking whether the UK is actually prepared to get involved in a long and protracted war a long way from home. Afghanistan and Iraq cast a long shadow over today’s problems: having been bitten by those conflicts, Western publics tend to be twice shy. Yet, today’s problems are actually of a greater order of magnitude and may necessitate military action far more than those ever did. As he took up his new role, Shapps pledged to continue the UK’s support for Ukraine . But it is unlikely to be Ukraine , long-term, which occupies the minds of UK defence planners. Instead, it is likely to be Taiwan and China’s moves to take over the island democracy which will shape UK and US defence policy for the rest of the decade, albeit Shapps and the Tories are unlikely to be in office if and when such a move takes place. Nevertheless, preparations ought to begin now, and questions need to be asked about Britain’s willingness and ability to get involved and stay the course. Grant Shapps has expressed concerns over UK capabilities (Image: Getty) To be fair to Shapps, in 2022 he said the UK ‘can’t afford not to’ boost defence spending, and wanted to increase it to three percent of gross domestic product. This, at a time when governments around the world are also boosting their military budgets. It goes without saying that China and Russia are beefing up their militaries. But so too are Japan and Poland, as well as India, South Korea, and Taiwan. Should Donald Trump return as US President, the pressure may be on for America’s allies to increase spending further if Trump maintains his previous position that many allies didn’t pull their weight (although many allies – such as Japan – have certainly stepped up since). While Ukraine will be top of Shapps in-tray, China and Taiwan are casting the bigger shadow into the future. Last month, a documentary was aired in mainland China talking up a Taiwan showdown, while only last week an official Chinese map showed Taiwan and areas of India as part of China. If Beijing is not prepping its people for war, it is doing a fine impression of a country which is. Yet, despite all this, and despite still seeing itself as a major military power, it is undeniable that Britain’s military has been woefully underfunded and under-resourced in recent years. Although the UK spends a little over two percent of GDP on defence, that is a huge drop from nearly 10 percent at the height of the Cold War in the 1950s or around four percent in the 1980s (roughly the US percentage today). Equipment and troop levels are both way down for Britain as well. Indeed, Shapps’ predecessor Ben Wallace said the British Army would be reduced to 73,000 from just under 80,000. Yet armed forces numbers overall – around 145,000 – are also way down. At the time of the Falklands War for instance, that figure was just over 327,000. This begs the question of whether the UK could repeat its military success against Argentina when in 1982 the UK successfully repelled an invasion of an overseas territory on the other side of the world. As in so many areas – from healthcare to road infrastructure – the British people seem to get a very poor return-on-investment for their ever-increasing tax burden. The reality is however that, should worst come to worst in Asia, the UK will be expected to get involved, not only because the US will likely have to get stuck in and the UK has an extremely close relationship with America, but because Australia – a country with which Britain shares a king – would likely be dragged in too. The AUKUS deal between the three English-speaking allies is testimony to the enduring bonds between them. Although Taiwan seems like a million miles from Britain, the UK – one of only five recognised nuclear weapons states and blue water navies – would be a massive loser if China pushed the US out of the Pacific, and upended the international order upon which the British economy has come to rely. That is before we get to the devastation of a war on the semiconductor industry (which would also cripple Britain), and the insecurity Britain and its allies would face if China came to dominate more and more of the semiconductor space (Taiwan is the world leader in that field). An effective blockade of the Taiwan Strait – as a result of war – would also have a crippling effect on the world economy, with Britain as much as any other country. Added to that, the UK’s Diego Garcia – part of the British Indian Ocean Territory – is a major Indo-Pacific base for the US military, but well within strike range for China. Should war break out, Beijing may see Diego Garcia as a soft target, since China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could strike US military assets within striking US territory. In that case, China would be striking UK territory, something which would surely necessitate a British response. The UK stood back submissively when China tore up the deal it made with Britain over Hong Kong, humiliating the UK and forcing hundreds of thousands of Hong Kongers out, many to the UK. Surely the UK cannot bail this time around, which means it is time to assess the country’s ability and willingness to partake in a major war once again. Ukraine may be top of Shapps’ in-tray for now, but the US and the UK have been clear they are not getting directly involved in any war with Russia (a decision which speaks volumes, by the way, even if the Russian military is derided by so much of the Western media). This has conveyed an impression to Beijing that the West may be too cowardly to fight China, even though the geopolitical stakes of a war in Asia dwarf those of the Ukraine conflict, and the West may find itself unable to sit on the sidelines, and merely arm Taiwan here and there. For starters, Taiwan is more than 16 times smaller than Ukraine , and – being an island – once a blockade or invasion begins, it will be infinitely harder to get equipment in and get people out than it has been for near-landlocked Ukraine . Shapps and the Tories probably will not be in office if and when an Asian war begins, but preparations – even at the risk of over-preparedness – need to start now, while politicians of all stripes ought to educate themselves and explain to the public what is at stake if indeed a war breaks out in Asia. Splendid isolation will not work this time around, and it is time the UK has an honest conversation about its ability and willingness to remain a premier league military power if and when the time comes. If the UK won’t stand up for itself – having capitulated time and again – perhaps the UK will do the decent thing and stand up for nations which do have a sporting chance of pulling through the next century.