The UK is not a small or unimportant nation. It is establishing itself as a key player on the world stage
At the end of this week, world leaders will head to India for a meeting of the G20. There are divisions between Western and non-Western powers, and speculation that President Xi might not even attend. No matter: we should start getting used to Western eyes looking east, and to heeding the words of President Modi and leaders across the Indo-Pacific region.
The region is home to more than half the world’s total population. Forecasts suggest it will generate more than half of global economic growth between now and 2050. And yet it is also the stage for strategic rivalry and danger to the prosperity and security of countries around the world. India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed neighbours with a history of conflict. China menaces Taiwan, clashes with India and worries countries across the region, from Japan to Australia.
To some in the United Kingdom, including some in the Foreign Office and the political establishment, these are distant places we can do little to influence. But we have vital interests in the region. There are trading opportunities with them which could boost growth and jobs. There are risks to be mitigated that would otherwise harm our interests and those of our allies.
War between India and Pakistan, for example, would not only be a disaster for the region but a huge asylum risk for Britain. A Chinese attack on Taiwan could endanger more than 60 per cent of the world’s semiconductors, and more than 90 per cent of the most advanced ones. Most seriously, it would also risk war between the United States and China.