Downing Street resignation comes as MPs admit ‘nobody believes Sunak can win’

The problem for Rishi Sunak is that confidence he can win the election next year is now at rock bottom as the tale of the departing director of communications Amber de Botton highlighted today. Nobody believes that it is a coincidence that her departure came within 48 hours of Rishi Sunak’s chief of staff Liam Booth-Smith telling government special advisers to quit if they do not think the Conservatives can win the next election. One Downing Street insider insisted: ‘We all leave on very good terms. She decided it was the right time for her.’ But while everyone may still be friends, the resignation less than a year after the Prime Minister entered Downing Street is another blow to the confidence that he is on top of things. And it may well be that de Botton’s communications strategy was part of the problem. Rishi Sunak is under pressure (Image: Getty) Not long after the Sunak Premiership was installed, Ms de Botton started having a trail of editors and political editors in to see her. The strategy of establishing contact with the people who would produce the news was a sound one and reflected on her own background as a journalist at ITV. But what she told senior journalists in retrospect sowed the seeds for some of the problems going forward. The strategy last winter was to not go on the front foot but to give space for questions to be asked of Labour and Keir Starmer about their policies and what they would do. It was hoped essentially that in a vacuum Labour would become more of the story while Mr Sunak tried to repair the Tory reputations for being the grown up in the room post Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Letters have gone to Sir Graham Brady asking for a leadership vote (Image: Getty) It was a terrible miscalculation. The vacuum was filled with the Tory civil war infighting and question marks about exactly what was going on. Even when they tried to get on the front foot with the five priorities in January, the pledges seemed so uninspiring and insipid that it did little to move the dial and, in fact, after cutting down Labour’s lead Conservative support started to plummet again. This week the Techne UK tracker poll showed that what many Tory MPs consider to be “a wasted summer recess” had actually seen Labour’s lead increase to 21 points over the Conservatives despite attempts to grab the initiaitve on crime and illegal migration. A mere 17 per cent thought that the Conservative government was addressing the nation’s priorities – an all time low. Less than half those who voted Tory in 2019 (47 per cent) were willing to do so again. According to Electoral Calculus this result would leave the Tories with a mere 106 seats in an election and Labour with a majority of 276. Labour are heading for a record majority (Image: ELECTORAL CALCULUS) It was well known that continuing failure had inevitably caused tensions in Sunak’s inner circle. In particular it has been suggested that relations between de Botton and Booth-Smith were tense. There was a feeling that somebody needed to take a grip of an increasingly gloomy narrative and take the attack to Labour more. That was why Matt Hancock’s well-liked former special adviser Jamie Njoku-Goodwin, a pal of Booth-Smith’s, was brought in as a new head of strategy at the start of the week. Among his many skills is being a chess champion, which one would hope means he can see a number of moves ahead rather than just be good at a game the Prime Minister wants to promote more. Shortly after Amber de Botton was gone and replaced by her deputy Nerissa Chesterfield (Nissy to those who know her well). While Chesterfield was a very able media spad for Mr Sunak while he was at the Treasury there are questions about whether she is the right person for such a high-profile, high-pressure job. Some had hoped for a tabloid, street fighter, others wanted another broadcaster with serious experience. One former cabinet minister said: ‘Nissy is very good, but does she have the experience to make the step up? This looks like the PM just relying on the people he knows best. It’s a bunker mentality.’ Grant Shapps appointment as Defence Secretary has left a number of Tory MPs unimpressed (Image: Getty) Another was less polite, comparing it to the promotion of Claire Continho, his former special adviser, to Energy Secretary. ‘It’s becoming a chumocracy,’ said the senior backbencher. Meanwhile, a number of MPs have confirmed that letters have gone in to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady asking for yet another vote on the leadership. Already allies of Boris Johnson had started sending their in but now others have joined them. One former minister said: ‘I’m afraid there has been no strategy at all, communications or otherwise. We are completely adrift.’ Another disgruntled Tory MP said: ‘It just feels like we have completely lost control, the country is falling apart. Noboy really believes the PM can win an election any more.’ The inability to say which schools are going to not open because of crumbling concrete is symbolic of a wider problem for many. ‘It’s going to be a disaster next week when our constituents are told their children aren’t going to school,’ noted one MP. ‘The government does not have a grip on this at all.’ Others are furious that the small boats keep coming and that the government is about to open the door for many more migrants from India in exchange for a trade deal. The reset among staff in Downing Street is one thing but many had hoped for a major ministerial reshuffle and new policies coming in. Another former cabinet minister said: ‘Rishi needs to find his inner Thatcher otherwise we are going to lose and lose badly. ‘Why are so many ministers who won’t be standing again at the next election still in their jobs? We need people who are willing to continue the fight, not preparing to walk away?’ Another described the minimalist reshuffle to replace Be Wallace as Defence Secretary with Grant Shapps as ‘pathetic’. ‘That’s not a reset, it’s just business as usual. We cannot just carry on like we are.’ All of it is leading up to a tough start to the new Parliamentary session next week. One MP gave Sunak up to the King’s speech to sort things out and seize the agenda. ‘Patience has already run out among many colleagues, hardly anyone thinks we can win. If the King’s speech in November does not offer something significantly new then many more letters will be going in.’