Real world data is undermining the doomster ‘Bregret’ narrative. There is little reason to now believe Britain is the sick man of Europe
What fun Britain’s rearguard Remainers appeared to have on 31 January when the IMF predicted that Britain was going to be the only major economy to shrink in 2023, the projected 0.6 per cent slide in output even worse than forecast to be suffered by sanctions-bound Russia.
Never mind that the UK had just finished 2022 as the fastest-growing economy in the G7; it was of course Brexit which was condemning us to poverty. “The effects of Brexit run through Britain’s last-in-class economy because they also run through its divided, exhausted politics,” declared the New York Times’ London Bureau Chief in a piece titled Brexit Turns 3: why is no-one wearing a party hat? “Brexit is the dark thread that, to some critics, explains why Britain is suffering more than its neighbours.”
According to The Observer, “Bregret” was now stalking the land. The OECD and CBI added their own ha’porth of wisdom, both independently echoing the IMF claim that the UK economy was headed for a grim 2023 relative to other European countries.
What an object lesson it has turned out to be in waiting for real-world data rather than reacting to what economic models are telling you, biased as they all are with the prejudices of those who create them. The Office of National Statistics this morning reported that the UK economy grew by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter, following growth of 0.1 per cent in the first quarter. It is not yet impossible that the economy could end up shrinking over the course of 2023, but it would take a pretty miserable autumn. Truth is, the UK economy has consistently outperformed forecasts over the past year – not least those worse-than-useless bulletins pumped out by the Bank of England which, from the vantage point of last autumn, had Britain in recession throughout 2023.