18 October, Friday, 2024
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HomeBusinessAndrew Bailey can't ignore the recession warning lights any longer

Andrew Bailey can’t ignore the recession warning lights any longer

Dire manufacturing and housing numbers suggest Britain is hurtling towards disaster

When the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee sits down on Thursday to decide whether to raise interest rates for the 14th time in succession, let’s hope someone had the foresight to hand out dark glasses.

The nine members will meet with the recession warning lights suddenly flashing so brightly that the most sensible course of action would be to slam the brakes on the dizzying monetary tightening of the last eighteen months. The current cycle represents the fastest pace of rate rises in more than 30 years, the effects of which are now so evident that the Bank simply has to react accordingly.

It’s a toss-up between whether the sudden slowdown in manufacturing or the sharp correction in housing prices should give the Bank’s rate-setters the most cause for concern. 

Factory output is dropping at its fastest pace in seven months. Meanwhile, the housing market is currently suffering its worst slump in nearly a decade and a half with prices dropping 4.5pc from last August’s peak.

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