Rishi Sunak: All isn’t lost! Next election is ‘not a done deal’

It has become fashionable to downplay the impact of by-elections, especially because their outcomes are so often overturned at the subsequent General Election. Indeed in John Major’s unexpected triumph in 1992, the Tories regained all seven seats they had lost at by-elections in the previous Parliament. Yet these contests can have a huge influence on the political landscape. Harold Macmillan’s days were numbered after the Tories’ surprise defeat at Orpington 1962, just as Margaret Thatcher’s downfall in 1990 was precipitated by the loss of Eastbourne. On the surface, this trio of results is dire news for the Prime Minister, apparently pointing to a humiliation when the country next goes to the polls. In Uxbridge the Tory vote fell heavily and the party only scraped home by 495 votes. Far worse was the drubbing at Selby in Yorkshire, which the Labour Leader had some justification in calling ‘historic’. The 23.7 per cent swing away from the Conservatives was the biggest at a by-election since Dudley West in 1994, while winning Labour candidate Keir Maher managed to overturn the largest Tory majority since 1945. It was the same grim story in Somerton in Somerset, where a Tory majority of 19,000 was overturned. What will particularly worry Tory strategists are the indicators that tactical voting is back on a massive scale, with electors mobilising behind the strongest anti-Government candidate in any given seat. If that happens at a General Election, the Tories will be trapped in a deadly pincer movement between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Yet this weekend, there is a palpable sense of relief in Downing Street. Beyond the bald figures, Rishi has reasons to be guardedly optimistic. Before Thursday’s votes, there was a widespread expectation that the Tories were in for a hammering in the three contests. One Minister predicted that ‘we are going to lose all of them horribly’. But it did not work out like that. In the face of Labour opinion poll leads of over 15 per cent, the Tories’ survival in Uxbridge was truly remarkable. The cause was deep local unpopularity with the aggressive, expensive green agenda of London’s Labour Mayor Khan, epitomised by his creation of an Ultra Low Emissions Zone, which imposes massive charges on drivers of older vehicles. The success of Steve Tuckwell, the Tory winner in Uxbridge, shows what can be achieved by a good candidate fighting a well-organized campaign that really takes the challenge to Labour. It is clear that Sir Keir’s party is both more vulnerable and inspires less enthusiasm than the current polls suggest. In the build-up to the by-elections, many of the Tories were sunk in gloom about their prospects. Some panicky figures called for bold new policies like radical tax cuts. Others urged a change of leadership. But those voices will be more muted now. What the Tories need is not headline-grabbing gimmicks or more bloodletting, but the reinforcement of their credibility and authority. The best way to achieve that is through reassuring competence that boosts the economy, tackles illegal immigration, and improves our public services. Amid the bleak approval ratings, there are signs that the strategy of the Prime Minister and his Chancellor is working. The last week has brought a raft of good economic news, including a bigger than expected drop in inflation to 7.9 per cent and the first reduction in mortgage rates in months. Government borrowing is £400million lower than last June and tax revenues are up by £5.6billion compared to the same period last year. Contrary to all the Remoaner talk about Brexit isolation, the Indian conglomerate Tata has just announced that it to invest £4billion in an electric car battering plant in Somerset. Beyond the economy, the Government have finally passed their legislation to deal with gangsters operating in the Channel. Another year of steady growth, falling inflation, and tighter control on immigration could give the Tories a chance. By-elections tend to be referendums on the Government’s performance. But the next General Election will be a choice over which party should rule our country. As Uxbridge and Somerton revealed, doubts are growing about Labour. Leo McKinstry is an Express Columnist.