Czech-sit beckons as Czech Republic falls out of love with EU

President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel at NATO summit (Image: Getty) Czech confidence in the EU is in decline. According to a recent study by the Czech Public Opinion Research Center (CVVM), a little less than half of Czechs now trust the bloc (46 percent to be precise), dealing yet another blow to an EU grappling with ongoing disputes with other states in Central and Eastern Europe. That is a fall from 58 percent last year. To be fair, Czech confidence has fallen further in the past, but the fact support has fallen so far and so fast is striking, and comes in the midst of the Ukraine conflict as well as ongoing battles between the Czech Republic’s allies – Hungary and Poland – on the one hand, and Brussels on the other. CVVM found that half of the Czech public now distrust the EU, while a mere 36 percent trust the European Parliament, and 38 percent trust the Commission. The data was collected before a vote on a contested new asylum plan, something voted against by Hungary and Poland, and abstained from by Slovakia. This means the Czech Republic is the only member of the conservative Visegrád Group of Central and Eastern EU member states to back the deal. This is despite the fact Czechs – like most people in Central and Eastern Europe – consistently express more conservative views on immigration than do Western Europeans, and in 2020 the Czech Republic joined Hungary and Poland in opposing a new migration pact. Czech confidence in the EU is in decline says Saxty (Image: Getty) Also in 2020, the European Court of Justice found the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland had all broken EU law by failing to give refuge to asylum seekers arriving in Europe in 2015. Officially the Czech Republic agrees with its regional allies that quotas are not a solution, and has emphasised the importance of return policies and the need to disrupt migration routes into Europe. Still, the Czech Government’s position seems far softer than those allies. Poland, for instance, is set to hold a referendum on the plan later this year, likely the same day as the country’s general election. The Czechs are, in addition, well-known for their Euroscepticism. Back in 2020, another study by the Behavio research agency found Czech approval of EU membership was the lowest of all member states, with only 33 percent in favour, and less than half of Czechs saying they would vote to remain in the bloc. Interestingly, the Czech Republic also offers lessons for countries in its region which have struggled with low fertility rates but which have refused to accept mass non-European immigration. Petr Pavel is seen meeting Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (Image: Getty) In the Czech Republic’s case, the fertility rate has risen dramatically, from a low of 1.43 in 2011 to 1.83 in 2021. While the country allows immigration – as for other states in the region, like Poland – immigrants mostly come from nearby countries (not least Ukraine ). For a country with a history of Euroscepticism to have backed an asylum plan which Hungary, Poland and Slovakia either opposed or abstained from, may have been a risky move for the Czech Government. While the Czech Republic has been a beneficiary of EU funds – and while its economy has grown well over the last two decades – alongside many other countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the Czech Republic is likely to become a net contributor to the bloc in the future. This may change the risk-reward calculation for EU membership. Meanwhile – like Hungary and Poland – the Czech Republic has retained its own currency, meaning, like those states, it could more easily leave the bloc than could a eurozone state like Italy. The latest data makes for uncomfortable reading for Brussels. For now the Czech Government has backed a recent EU migration plan, putting it at odds with its closest allies – as well as going against the trend of past behaviour and general public opinion on the subject – the Czechs could be set to turn even further against the EU.