Expert shares risks if Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine explodes

An expert has spoken exclusively with  Express.co.uk about the potential health and environmental risks if reactors at a nuclear power plant in Ukraine are compromised by explosives. Russian forces seized the Zaporizhzhia plant in March 2022, just weeks into the war with Ukraine raising fears of a nuclear incident. This week (July 5) satellite images of the area showed unidentified white shapes on top of one of the reactors at the plant. In a national address President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Now we have information from our intelligence that the Russian troops have placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. “Perhaps to simulate an attack on the plant. Perhaps they have some other scenario.” Shapes believed to be explosives were spotted on a reactor at the Zaporizhzhia power plant (Image: Getty Images) Expert Duncan Spinner, head of Ukraine Operations at Prevail Partners , told Express.co.uk that while a detonation at the plant would not result in a scenario like the Chernobyl disaster of 1986, there could be some ‘radiological risk’. He said: ‘There is no situation, even a current worst-case scenario, at Zaporizhzhia NPP (ZNPP), in which an explosive detonation could cause an event like that at Chernobyl or Fukushima, and any comparison is unhelpful and inaccurate. ‘Five of ZNPPs reactors have been in cold shutdown for several months, and one is in hot shutdown. ‘As a result, they are not operating at either high pressure or high temperature and are unable to cause a prompt radiological release. ‘ZNPP, along with all current nuclear reactors, has been designed to withstand natural and man-made hazards. ‘Even the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam had been taken into account, as part of post-Fukushima planning.’ President Zelenskyy pictured during a press conference in Kyiv (Image: Getty Images) According to Mr Spinner, this does not mean that Russian forces would not look to detonate an explosive device at ZNPP to cause a radiological risk. He said: ‘Whilst it is possible that the Russians could detonate explosives to breach the containment structures, any potential radiological release would likely be limited to the immediate area around the reactors. ‘The most dangerous fission product that is produced from a nuclear reaction is Iodine-131. ‘This has a half-life of eight days, so given the length of time that the reactors have been in cold and hot shutdown, this has now decayed to safe levels.’ Those living nearby most likely be affected Much like a small ‘dirty bomb’, only those in the immediate area would be affected directly by the blast or exposure to radiological material,’ Mr Spinner explained. He said: ‘The radiological risks to those individuals would depend on their proximity and duration to any release. Russian forces have occupied the Zaporizhzhia power plant since last year (Image: Express.co.uk) ‘Given this reference scenario, there is a possibility that Ukraine would suffer the loss of the personnel suitable and qualified to respond to the incident, and potentially some of those required to restore the plant post-conflict, if they were in the immediate vicinity.’ A lasting impact on Ukraine This kind of radiological incident, whilst very localised in nature, could however have serious ramifications for the future viability of ZNPP as a site for the nuclear generation of electricity, Mr Spinner continued. He said: ‘Given that ZNPP was responsible for the production of approximately 20 percent of Ukraine ‘s total electricity supply before the Russian invasion, it would have a significant impact on Ukrainian energy supply and future reconstruction efforts. ‘It would also result in an expensive clean-up operation that would have to be conducted in order to remediate the site.’ Mr Spinner added: ‘Due to the limited scale and physical impact of an explosion at ZNPP, the overall number of casualties is likely to be low. ‘Those in the immediate vicinity may suffer fatal injuries, and trauma may go untreated due to limited access and time-consuming preventative measures required by the emergency services to operate in an irradiated environment.’ However, Professor Michael Clarke, a visiting professor at King’s College London, believed any disturbance to the plant’s reactors ‘would be something akin to Chernobyl in 1986.’ Speaking to Sky News he warned: ‘Although these plants are all powered down, they’re not working, they still have fuel rods in them, the rods have got to be kept cool. ‘If they are exploded, it would still cause damage and they will probably overheat, even in their passive state, so there will be some nuclear fallout. ‘And then it depends which way the wind is blowing. It might blow over Russia but equally it might blow over the West, Western Europe.’ The Zaporizhzhia power plant is situated in the city of Zaporizhzhia, located by the Dnieper River in south-eastern Ukraine .