Walk softly and speak with an American accent. People pay attention to you then
Tensions between the West and China show no sign of easing. Interdependence and mistrust continue to mix uneasily. Triggers are many and varied including; human rights, relations with Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine, microchip manufacturing and the big one, Taiwan.
Then there is the rhetoric. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is in Beijing for talks aimed at easing some of these tensions. It’s ironic, but not unprecedented, that at the exact same time, President Xi is telling the troops of the Eastern Theatre Command – the one that faces Taiwan – that they need to step up their combat readiness and “… persist in thinking and handling military issues from a political perspective, dare to fight, be good at fighting, and resolutely defend our national sovereignty, security, and development interests.”
This is not the first time Xi has timed an info-ops stunt like this to coincide with a diplomatic visit and neither is he the first Chinese President to do it. Hu Jintao did something similar in 2011 telling his military to “make extended preparations for warfare”. It has happened many times since. One can make a case that this constant need to posture in this way masks a lack of confidence. Xi’s military numbers and rate of build might be eyewatering but what experience underpins them? Russia’s efforts in Ukraine have shown repeatedly that spectacular parades do not equate to hardened fighting competence. His message is timed with Yellen’s visit to create maximum international effect but internally it is as likely to be a kick aimed at his generals than an immediate call to arms.
In the longer term, is war with China inevitable? General Mike Minihan of the US Airforce says it is; a hawkish stance that I suspect is shared by quite a few in the US military. But, as is the way, there are plenty who believe that the situation will continue to be managed by ongoing diplomatic efforts and the deterrent effect of our combined militaries.