Sir Keir Starmer may scent victory but triumph will be short-lived

Sir Keir Starmer unveils Labour’s fifth mission for Government (Image: Dan Kitwood/Getty) Let’s face it, at some point next year we are almost certainly going to wake up to a Labour government. For the Conservatives, the polls look dreadful, with Labour regularly showing 15 percent or more leads. Moreover, there is little sunshine on the horizon. On the contrary, markets expect interest rates to peak at close to seven percent, placing even more pressure on hard-pressed households. At current ratings, it is not impossible that Sir Keir Starmer could end up with an even bigger victory than the 179 majority achieved by Sir Tony Blair in 1997. That would make him the most powerful Prime Minister since Blair, with more or less free rein to change Britain however he sees fit. But that is where the comparisons with Blair end. However well it starts, a Starmer government will inevitably be pitched into deep trouble. Blair began his premiership at a time of economic calm. The economy was recovering strongly from its early 1990s slump. Interest rates, along with unemployment, were falling. The public finances rapidly recovered as higher tax revenues filled the public coffers. Moreover, tax revenues were growing because of economic growth – taxes, as a share of GDP, were closest to their post-war low point. Markets were rising, too, making many people feel wealthier. It would have taken a rotten government to spoil all that, and Blair, along with his Chancellor Gordon Brown, was too wise to let that happen. They had come to office promising no increase in income tax or VAT rates, and they stuck to that. Brown had pledged sound public finances and, at least initially, he kept his word – the early New Labour years were the last time a UK government succeeded in balancing the books, taking in as much revenue as it spent. The situation could not be more different from that which will greet a Prime Minister Starmer. The public finances are a mess. Interest rates will almost certainly remain high, and house prices are likely to be falling. The tax burden will be at a 60-year high. The trouble is that Labour’s instincts will very likely make these things a lot worse. As Chancellor, Rachel Reeves is not likely to produce a Budget to get borrowing back under control. On the contrary, Labour has staked its reputation over the past dozen years, dismissing any attempt to bring spending under control as ‘austerity’. Reeves will find herself besieged by unions, quangos, local authorities and others who will expect a Labour government to mean a massive payday for them. Public debt is sure to run even further out of control, keeping interest rates high. The current government’s plan to eliminate all fossil fuels from the National Grid by 2035 is alarming enough; Labour’s plan to do so by 2030 promises either blackouts or even more expensive electricity. It is all very well setting dates for eliminating gas and coal-fired power stations, but neither Ed Miliband, Labour’s climate secretary, nor anyone else has any answer to how you run a national grid based on intermittent renewables without a reliable backup like gas. Worse, Miliband has toyed with the idea of paying climate reparations to poor countries – on the conceit that Britain’s 18th and 19th-century industrial revolution was responsible for the mass use of fossil fuels. That will not go down well with millions of Britons struggling to pay heating bills. Blair succeeded in his early years because he had an uncommonly well-tuned political antenna. He knew what voters would accept and what they would not. Starmer demonstrates no such powers. His failure to address the issue of illegal migration, for example, shows a considerable gap between him and the general public. The Conservatives may have failed to turn back the small boats, but it is not going to go down well with voters when they see Labour is hardly even trying. On top of that comes Labour’s dalliance with woke issues. Is Britain really ready for a Prime Minister who thinks that a woman can have a penis? Remember, too, Starmer hurrying to take the knee during the Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 and quickly trying to backtrack when it was pointed out that the organisation he was supporting wanted to end capitalism and defund the police? With a strong economy, Starmer might just get away with things like that. But if he takes office against a continued background of economic turmoil, public support is not going to last long. The next Labour government could be initially triumphant – but short-lived.