Democrats’ postal vote victories hasve panicked Tories and Republicans

Alarm bells have started ringing on this side of the Atlantic again, especially consdering that the enxt UK election will, at best for the Conservatives, be lost in crucial seats by fine margins. The fact is that toss up election after toss up election in the US has gone the Democrats way largely when the the postal votes (our American cousins call them mail-in ballots) have been counted. Nevada is the latest one, a result which stops the Republicans even gaining a single seat in the Senate, but the same was true in Pennsylvania, Arizona and many Congressional House battles.A massive 42 million people in the US used mail-in ballots in the 2022 midterms and it appears to have changed the dynamics which has alarmed politicians on the centre right.A former Conservative minister told Express.co.uk that he would be writing on the issue to Oliver Dowden, now Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster in charge of the engine room of government aka the Cabinet Office.It is an issue that has also vexed the Common Sense group where many of the 60 or so members are MPs from former Labour seats looking at well oiled machines waiting to dump them out of office in two years time.While this is a newish issue in the US where mail-in ballots for those who wanted them only came around for 2020 as a result of lockdowns and the covid pandemic.But in the UK it was brought in by Sir Tony Blair’s government and by 2004 there were accusations of Labour “farming votes” with the new system.The Tory ex-minister noted: “We cannot ignore what has happened in the US, it verifies what we have been saying is happening here in the UK with postal voting.”We have to reverse Tony Blair’s reforms and just allow postal voting for the most extreme circumstances, with a doctor’s certificate needed or those like the military who are serving abroad.” Supporters of Trump already believe the Democrats won because of postal voting (Image: GETTY)The minister and others are planning on pushing Mr Doden, who is responsible for electoral reform, to push ahed with voter ID and limiting postal voting again to the pre-Blair settlement.One Conservative MP put it very bluntly in private.”We can see with the Democrats in the US that postal voting gives parties of the left an in-built advantage.”The mail-in ballots in 2020 were what was behind the claims by Donald Trump and his MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republican supporters that the Presidential election was “stolen”.After the midterm results have been counted where the Republican red wave was barely a trickle despite an eight point swing to them in the popular vote, that narrative is back with a vengeance.READ MORE: MAGA candidates are still winners US pollster claims Sir Tony Blair’s government liberalised postal voting (Image: GETTY)The merest glance at social media hows the rage of Republicans and their media supporters (including many verified blue tick accounts, for what that is worth), over mail-in ballots with the system now extended to the 2024 Presidential and Congressional elections.Former Fox News journalist Kyle Becker, said: “The Biden administration is extending the COVID-19 ‘public health emergency’ until at least April. This is not about “public health.” This is about blue states keeping the mass mail-in ballots for 2024.”Brian Glenn, director of programming at RSB Network, Tweeted: “Our election process was weaponized by #COVID19 by implementing methods that could be compromised such as drop boxes and extended mail in voting. Combine that will the ‘machines’ and the #dems have these elections locked down. Go back to same day paper ballot or it’s over.”Daniel Bostic Tweeted: “Republicans cannot compete with untraceable mass mail-in ballots. There will always be more miraculous dumps of votes found, and they will always be 80%+ Democrat, and if you question that you are a domestic terrorist.”DON’T MISSDonald Trump replaced as favourite to win the White House in 2024 [REVEAL]Republicans in UK toasted Trump’s fall explains DAVID MADDOX [INSIGHT]’Time for Republicans to end the Trump purgatory and begin new era’ [REACT] Some believe Biden only became President because of mail-in ballots (Image: GETTY)Even the Democrats boasted about mail-in ballots.Democrats Abroad posted: “After counting all our mail-in ballots, Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto was re-elected to the US Senate.”But others suggest that the Republicans only have themselves to blame.Frank Luntz, the pollster who helped George W. Bush win the White House Tweeted at an article highlighting this quote: “Republicans made Arizona an early vote-by-mail innovator in 1991, enacting one of the first laws in the country permitting voters to send in a mail ballot early without an excuse.’It is worth noting that Arizona was one of the target states the Democrats held on to last week.But it has also raised serious questions for how US polling is done.Many, including the Washington DC based Democracy Institute which polls for Express.co.uk, have only focussed on “likely voters” because turnout has been historically low in US elections.US journalist Tim Pool noted: “Mass mail in voting means “likely voter” polls are all wrong and useless. The urban advantage will swing Democrat from here on out and disinterested voters will be voting via ballot harvest.” Patrick Basham is director of the Democracy Institute in Washington DC (Image: DEMOCRACY INSTITUTE)In a video interview (above) Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute, pointed out that his polling was close in terms of the popular vote share predicted giving the Republicans a five point lead.But he admited the seat predictions which on that vote share could have given the Republicans as many as 57 of the 100 Senate seats was a long way off.However, he said that what had taken place with an 8 percet swing to the Repubolicans with barely any gains was “historically unprecedented.”He said: “Historically, the Republicans have an efficient vote. They can lose the popular vote but still win seats.”This time though it was the Democrats who had the efficient vote. They lost the popular vote and yet limited the damage.”He was no doubt though about the was mail-in ballots had changed the dynamic.”The Democrats were able to get their vote to the polls – figuratively or literally – a lot of it through the mail or post in the most competitive districts and the most competitive states.” Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Oliver Dowden will be urged to change postal voting (Image: GETTY)Concerns about postal voting in the UK date back to allegations in 2004 about voter harvesting by Labour in local elections.In Tower Hamlets, Lutfur Rahman was removed from office by an electoral court, banned from standing for election for five years and ordered to pay £250,000 costs in April 2015 after he was found to have used corrupt and illegal practices when he was elected for his second term as mayor of the London borough in 2014.This remains the only case where cheating has seen the result overturned.but there have been allegations of cheating in other votes, most recently the 2019 where Labour won and saw off a surge by the Brexit Party on the back of a strong showing on postal voting.Out of the 33,998 ballot papers counted, 9,898 were postal votes, with around 400 rejected because serious question marks over details including signatures and dates of births not matching the council records.On Labour’s campaign team was Tariq Mahmood, who was actually jailed in 2008 for postal vote interference.Cambridgeshire Police investigated but no action was taken. Rishi Sunak is likely to face a tight election in 2024 (Image: GETTY)Other byelections and local elections have seen similar concerns around the process which is why voter ID was trialled in Gosport by the Conservative Government.Those who defend mail-in ballots point out that it hugely increases turnout and encourages those who would normally not be bothered to vote.The big question mark is whether people on postal ballots all know whether they are voting or whether in the case of some ethnic minority groups their votes are simply being taken from them and used by others, particuoarly in the case of women.There seems little doubt that the Democrats have learnt from Labour in using the system effeciciently especially with low income or community groups – that is a long way from saying they are actively cheating though.The problem the Republicans have – and the Conservatives will have probably post 2024 – is that it is impossible to change that system when out of power.But Labour and the Democrats, who both vehemently oppose voter ID as well, are unlikey to give up on postal voting without a strenuous fight because at the very worst it gives them a competitive advantage as things stand.