Control of House still up for grabs but Democrats face a tougher path

Three days after Election Day, it’s still possible that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s caucus could stun the world by retaining control of the House of Representatives when the 118th Congress convenes on 3 January. It’s also possible that Republicans could earn the 218 votes needed to sweep into power next year. Of the 435 seats in the lower chamber, the GOP has already laid claim to 211 of them, while Democrats have already been declared the victors in 195 contests. And of the 29 seats that remain undecided, the GOP only needs to win seven more to eke out a bare majority. Most election forecasters in the US have predicted that the Republicans will indeed take control of the House, but getting there won’t be so easy. Of the undecided districts that remain, approximately 12 of those are considered toss-ups, which means forecasters have given both parties equal chance of winning. Yet so far, Democrats currently lead in eight of those contests. They would need to pull ahead in all of them to defy expectations and keep Ms Pelosi in charge. And while Republicans are far more likely to pull off an overall win in the end, it may yet be smaller than the five-seat margin Democrats have had to deal with since the 11th Congress opened in 2021. That’s bad news for the man who has led the House GOP for the last two Congresses, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.While his counterpart on the Democratic side, Ms Pelosi, is famous for keeping her members in line when it comes to voting on big-ticket items such as President Joe Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law or the Inflation Reduction Act, Mr McCarthy has never wrestled complex legislation through the House with just a small number of votes to spare.What’s more, the House Republican Conference he could end up leading as speaker will be rife with Trumpian extremists who have built their careers on pillorying GOP leaders who cooperate with Democrats on anything, even must-pass bills to fund the government or prevent the US from defaulting on sovereign debt and blowing up the world’s economy. A one-seat majority would be even more of a nightmare for the GOP leader, as it would place each one of his members where West Virginia senator Joe Manchin spent the last two years: Empowered to block any piece of legislation they dislike for any reason.Already, members of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus have made clear to Mr McCarthy that they plan on extracting costs from him before they’ll support his bid to become speaker, should the GOP take the majority.But even if they do, it won’t be known for some time.Most of the seats that remain up for grabs are in California, which for years has conducted elections largely by mail.It may take days – or weeks – to determine whether Mr McCarthy’s conference will have the 218 members it needs to control the agenda for the next two years. But even if it does, he may end up regretting it.