None of the things that really matter for investors are binary
In a few weeks I’ll be lifting the lid on my fund recommendations for 2023. We call these Tom’s Picks, although we’re not alone in doing that, so unless you’re looking for the best fruit varieties in Southern California or a new smartphone, make sure Google points you to the right Tom.
Selecting the right fund is important. The difference between the best and the rest is wide and there are plenty of fund managers who don’t clear the most basic hurdle of all, beating a cheap tracker fund in their chosen area of the market. Past performance is a guide, but even the best money managers can have extended periods in the wilderness.
But this is arguably not the most important question for an investor. Before you get to choose where to invest there are bigger market questions to ask. The first thing to focus on is the story.
What’s Mr Market going to throw at us in the next year or so? Because in the final analysis it is this, and not whether you choose ABC manager or XYZ, that will determine how you look back on 2023.